When are you upset?

[Snidely]

This is for our current crop of sports fans, both of us. And as such,
this is about when a game/match/meet is won, under what conditions do
you consider it an upset?

This question began bugging me during the recent NCAA basketball
tournament. Firvethirtyeight.com, for instance, in that context
considered it an upset anytime a lower-seeded team beat a higher-seeded
team. Would you consider a #5 seed beating a #4 seed an upset? What
about a #6 team beating a #4 team or a #5 seed beating #3?

[Note: the actual tourney had some clear upsets in the first and
second round]

In college football, there's the national ranking for FBS-elgigble
teams, and it's clear that an unranked team (that is, from outside the
Top 25) beating a ranked team is generally an upset. But within the
T25, how much separation in rank is needed to score an upset?

There are also less official rankings, like KenPom for college
basketball that can be used. How much delta-rank is needed for an
upset based on your favorite rankings?

For the usual North American pro sports, we can use each leagues
standings to judge upsets. These are mainly based on win/loss (and
sometimes tie) records, and I usually just eyeball those. For
instance, in the NHL the Jets beat the Golden Knights, and their record
is now 46-33-3 and the GKs are at 51-22-9. Is that enough of a
difference to count as an upset for you? I'm inclined to waffle with
"minor upset", but if the 46 was 48, I think that would be too close
for shock or surprise at the result.

Pro Tennis and Pro Golf have rankings maintained by their
organizations. Would Petra Kvitova beating Coco Gauff be an upset?
Coco Grauff beating Jesic Pegula? Matt Fitzpatrick over Patrick
Cantlay? Patrick Cantlay over Scottie Scheffler?

And of course, some AFCAns can comment of what's an upset in English
Premier League or n the Dutch Eredvisie. Or on what's cricket.

My simple answer is usually based on win/loss, but should I be
adjusting for strength of schedule or for what I expect from a teams
star players vs the other teams? I think I've learned that LeBron
James and Kevin Durant aren't always the determining factor, but would
you expect the stars to make a difference to deciding if a win is an
upset?

If all this is too deep a philosophical question for you, which team or
player do you want to see win an upset victory?

/dps

[Rick B.]

Post by Snidely
This is for our current crop of sports fans, both of us. And as such,
this is about when a game/match/meet is won, under what conditions do
you consider it an upset?
This question began bugging me during the recent NCAA basketball
tournament. Firvethirtyeight.com, for instance, in that context
considered it an upset anytime a lower-seeded team beat a higher-seeded
team. Would you consider a #5 seed beating a #4 seed an upset? What
about a #6 team beating a #4 team or a #5 seed beating #3?

At that level, you can argue that the guys doing the seeding just got it
slightly wrong and it's not an upset at all. They're pretty much reading tea
leaves regarding stuff like strength of schedule and margin of victory to try
to get it right. Even if they get it right in theory, sometimes style of play
trumps raw talent--you get a 7 seed that might have lost big to the 3 or 4 in
their bracket matching up well with a 2 seed and pulling off a win. They'll
call that an upset in the media, but the coaches might not agree.

[b***@shaw.ca]

Post by Rick B.

This is for our current crop of sports fans, both of us. And as such,
this is about when a game/match/meet is won, under what conditions do
you consider it an upset?
This question began bugging me during the recent NCAA basketball
tournament. Firvethirtyeight.com, for instance, in that context
considered it an upset anytime a lower-seeded team beat a higher-seeded
team. Would you consider a #5 seed beating a #4 seed an upset? What
about a #6 team beating a #4 team or a #5 seed beating #3?

I'm not really interested in that exact topic, but if I was, I'd rely on my extensive
knowledge of the teams. If I didn't have any, I'd check the Las Vegas
betting odds. But I regularly follow only baseball and ice hockey .

About 40 to 50 years ago, I used to run my newsroom's office pools for
Major League baseball and the National Hockey League.

Post by Rick B.
At that level, you can argue that the guys doing the seeding just got it
slightly wrong and it's not an upset at all. They're pretty much reading tea
leaves regarding stuff like strength of schedule and margin of victory to try
to get it right. Even if they get it right in theory, sometimes style of play
trumps raw talent--you get a 7 seed that might have lost big to the 3 or 4 in
their bracket matching up well with a 2 seed and pulling off a win. They'll
call that an upset in the media, but the coaches might not agree.

Actually, the sports media nearly always talk to the coaches for their assessment of
games, players and teams. That's part of the job description for both parties. They
need each other.

One of the outcomes of that is that the sports media reporters can be influenced
by the coaches, but that is often better than relying on the reporters' smarts alone.

bill

[Melvin Richard]

Post by b***@shaw.ca

Post by Rick B.

This is for our current crop of sports fans, both of us. And as such,
this is about when a game/match/meet is won, under what conditions do
you consider it an upset?
This question began bugging me during the recent NCAA basketball
tournament. Firvethirtyeight.com, for instance, in that context
considered it an upset anytime a lower-seeded team beat a higher-seeded
team. Would you consider a #5 seed beating a #4 seed an upset? What
about a #6 team beating a #4 team or a #5 seed beating #3?

I'm not really interested in that exact topic, but if I was, I'd rely on my extensive
knowledge of the teams. If I didn't have any, I'd check the Las Vegas
betting odds. But I regularly follow only baseball and ice hockey .
About 40 to 50 years ago, I used to run my newsroom's office pools for
Major League baseball and the National Hockey League.

Post by Rick B.
At that level, you can argue that the guys doing the seeding just got it
slightly wrong and it's not an upset at all. They're pretty much reading tea
leaves regarding stuff like strength of schedule and margin of victory to try
to get it right. Even if they get it right in theory, sometimes style of play
trumps raw talent--you get a 7 seed that might have lost big to the 3 or 4 in
their bracket matching up well with a 2 seed and pulling off a win. They'll
call that an upset in the media, but the coaches might not agree.

Actually, the sports media nearly always talk to the coaches for their assessment of
games, players and teams. That's part of the job description for both parties. They
need each other.
One of the outcomes of that is that the sports media reporters can be influenced
by the coaches, but that is often better than relying on the reporters' smarts alone.
bill

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[Bob]

This is for our current crop of sports fans, both of us. And as such,
this is about when a game/match/meet is won, under what conditions do
you consider it an upset?

Money talks loudest and clearest. It's an upset when betters who got odds won, or when those who got points would've won without them.

[Snidely]

Lo, on the 4/21/2023, Bob did proclaim ...

Post by Bob

This is for our current crop of sports fans, both of us. And as such,
this is about when a game/match/meet is won, under what conditions do
you consider it an upset?

Money talks loudest and clearest. It's an upset when betters who got odds
won, or when those who got points would've won without them.

When it's 51-49, or not until 5-1?

/dps

[Bob]

Post by Snidely
Lo, on the 4/21/2023, Bob did proclaim ...

This is for our current crop of sports fans, both of us. And as such,
this is about when a game/match/meet is won, under what conditions do
you consider it an upset?

Money talks loudest and clearest. It's an upset when betters who got odds
won, or when those who got points would've won without them.

When it's 51-49, or not until 5-1?
/dps
--

Any time you stand to gain more by betting on that competitor than on the other. Any time the chalk doesn't win.

[a***@yahoo.com]

This is for our current crop of sports fans, both of us. And as such,
this is about when a game/match/meet is won, under what conditions do
you consider it an upset?

Money talks loudest and clearest. It's an upset when betters who got odds won, or when those who got points would've won without them.

Last Fall, my Alma Mater, Cal, was up by ten points with 5 seconds left. Stanford kicked a very long field goal to lose by 3 points, but as the result the total number of points was above the over by 1 point. Some bettors
Some bettors were now doubt, very upset.

[Boron Elgar]

Post by Snidely
This is for our current crop of sports fans, both of us. And as such,
this is about when a game/match/meet is won, under what conditions do
you consider it an upset?
This question began bugging me during the recent NCAA basketball
tournament. Firvethirtyeight.com, for instance, in that context
considered it an upset anytime a lower-seeded team beat a higher-seeded
team. Would you consider a #5 seed beating a #4 seed an upset? What
about a #6 team beating a #4 team or a #5 seed beating #3?
[Note: the actual tourney had some clear upsets in the first and
second round]
In college football, there's the national ranking for FBS-elgigble
teams, and it's clear that an unranked team (that is, from outside the
Top 25) beating a ranked team is generally an upset. But within the
T25, how much separation in rank is needed to score an upset?
There are also less official rankings, like KenPom for college
basketball that can be used. How much delta-rank is needed for an
upset based on your favorite rankings?
For the usual North American pro sports, we can use each leagues
standings to judge upsets. These are mainly based on win/loss (and
sometimes tie) records, and I usually just eyeball those. For
instance, in the NHL the Jets beat the Golden Knights, and their record
is now 46-33-3 and the GKs are at 51-22-9. Is that enough of a
difference to count as an upset for you? I'm inclined to waffle with
"minor upset", but if the 46 was 48, I think that would be too close
for shock or surprise at the result.
Pro Tennis and Pro Golf have rankings maintained by their
organizations. Would Petra Kvitova beating Coco Gauff be an upset?
Coco Grauff beating Jesic Pegula? Matt Fitzpatrick over Patrick
Cantlay? Patrick Cantlay over Scottie Scheffler?
And of course, some AFCAns can comment of what's an upset in English
Premier League or n the Dutch Eredvisie. Or on what's cricket.
My simple answer is usually based on win/loss, but should I be
adjusting for strength of schedule or for what I expect from a teams
star players vs the other teams? I think I've learned that LeBron
James and Kevin Durant aren't always the determining factor, but would
you expect the stars to make a difference to deciding if a win is an
upset?
If all this is too deep a philosophical question for you, which team or
player do you want to see win an upset victory?
/dps

Holy moly- I am glad I only follow baseball.

[b***@shaw.ca]

This is for our current crop of sports fans, both of us. And as such,
this is about when a game/match/meet is won, under what conditions do
you consider it an upset?
This question began bugging me during the recent NCAA basketball
tournament. Firvethirtyeight.com, for instance, in that context
considered it an upset anytime a lower-seeded team beat a higher-seeded
team. Would you consider a #5 seed beating a #4 seed an upset? What
about a #6 team beating a #4 team or a #5 seed beating #3?
[Note: the actual tourney had some clear upsets in the first and
second round]
In college football, there's the national ranking for FBS-elgigble
teams, and it's clear that an unranked team (that is, from outside the
Top 25) beating a ranked team is generally an upset. But within the
T25, how much separation in rank is needed to score an upset?
There are also less official rankings, like KenPom for college
basketball that can be used. How much delta-rank is needed for an
upset based on your favorite rankings?
For the usual North American pro sports, we can use each leagues
standings to judge upsets. These are mainly based on win/loss (and
sometimes tie) records, and I usually just eyeball those. For
instance, in the NHL the Jets beat the Golden Knights, and their record
is now 46-33-3 and the GKs are at 51-22-9. Is that enough of a
difference to count as an upset for you? I'm inclined to waffle with
"minor upset", but if the 46 was 48, I think that would be too close
for shock or surprise at the result.
Pro Tennis and Pro Golf have rankings maintained by their
organizations. Would Petra Kvitova beating Coco Gauff be an upset?
Coco Grauff beating Jesic Pegula? Matt Fitzpatrick over Patrick
Cantlay? Patrick Cantlay over Scottie Scheffler?
And of course, some AFCAns can comment of what's an upset in English
Premier League or n the Dutch Eredvisie.

I don't ever get to see Eredivisie games on Canadian TV, but sports
channels here do show some Premier League and Bundesliga games. With
the latter, I get to see Alphonso Davies play. He's a Canadian who plays for
Bayern Munich, the New York Yankees of European soccer.

bill

[HVS]

On 19 Apr 2023, Snidely wrote

-snip interesting comments and questions on upset victories-

Post by Snidely
If all this is too deep a philosophical question for you, which
team or player do you want to see win an upset victory?

In cricket, that'd be "whoever's playing against Australia".

(Admittedly, I'm not fussy, as I'd include teams that are stronger than
Australia. Maybe not an upset, but still a good result.....)

[Snidely]

HVS suggested that ...

Post by HVS
-snip interesting comments and questions on upset victories-

Post by Snidely
If all this is too deep a philosophical question for you, which
team or player do you want to see win an upset victory?

In cricket, that'd be "whoever's playing against Australia".
(Admittedly, I'm not fussy, as I'd include teams that are stronger than
Australia. Maybe not an upset, but still a good result.....)

[chortle]

-d